Despite the continuing challenges in the commercial real estate sector, the U.S. economy has managed to avoid a recession. Consumer spending has played a significant role in supporting the economy.

Economic forecasts have shifted, with some economists becoming less pessimistic about the future. The Federal Reserve is credited with successfully guiding the economy toward a “soft landing.”

Oxford Economics (OE) predicts economic stagnation in 2024, characterized by slow growth, high unemployment, and mild job losses. The real gross domestic product is projected to grow by 1%, with some quarters experiencing no growth.

The following Factors Influence these Forecasts:

  • Retail sales have continued to grow, though at a slower pace.
  • Resumption of student loan and tax payments, along with higher interest rates, has had a smaller impact on consumers than anticipated.
  • The term “rolling recession” is used to describe variations in economic performance across different sectors.

The National Bureau of Economic Research follows six indicators to determine the overall economic situation. While some indicators have contracted, no recession is evident when considering all indicators collectively.

While some Potential Risks are still hanging around:

  • The labor market is showing signs of slowing job gains.
  • Real disposable income fell in August and September.
  • Core inflation has risen by 4% in October, potentially leading to further tightening of credit conditions by the Federal Reserve.

The following Recession Indicators:

  • The Conference Board’s leading economic index has been falling for nineteen consecutive months.
  • Interest rate spreads continue to show a contraction.

While some challenges in the housing market remain, including near-record low housing affordability, despite a marginal increase in the supply of existing houses for sale. Higher mortgage rates and a potential cooling of income growth may impact the housing market.


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